以经济周期性回暖为契机 加快推进供给侧结构性改革——2017年上半年宏观经济形势及下半年走势分析

Graspingthe Chanceof Cyclical Revival,Strengtheningthesupply-sidestructuralreform——Analyzing Macroeconomic Situation and Trends in 2017

今年上半年,我国宏观经济运行企稳回升,主要原因是:PPP模式引导民间投资效果显现,民间投资增速触底迅速回升;供给侧结构性改革持续发力,"三去一降一补"措施效果明显,国际大宗商品价格快速上涨,我国工业企业经营效益改善,并带动制造业投资回升;国际经济缓慢复苏促进国际需求上升,居民可支配收入和消费需求趋于稳定。随着此轮经济周期性回暖的到来,能源和工业品价格和利润率逐步回调,下半年"稳增长"压力依然较大。为以优异的经济表现迎接党的十九大召开,建议继续实施稳健的货币政策和积极的财政政策,以保证经济回暖动力持续存在,抓住当前价格平稳的"窗口期",加快推进供给侧结构性改革,为我国经济注入长期动能。

In the first half year of 2017, macroeconomic situation turns better for that： growth rate of private investment increases since public investment of PPP rebounds and rise fast; as consequences of that the supply-side structural reform improves industrial firms＇ sales and that international primary commodity price increase, investment on manufacturing industry is enlarging： global demand goes up, national income and domestic consumption show greater stability. Rising speed of energy and industrial products price will decline with the end of the cyclical re- vival, stress of growth stability is going to rise. For the coming 19th CPC National Congress, ro- bust monetary policy and active fiscal policy are required to spur economy, and the supply-side structural reform under proper inflation condition at present need to be strengthened.