摘要
【目的/意义】随着移动互联网技术的飞速发展,社交网络信息数量呈现爆炸式增长,民众对于热点事件的评论形成强大的舆情力量,因此对舆情的分析与监控成为目前重点关注的问题。【方法/过程】为此,本文基于GARCH模型,以"甘肃白银连环杀人案"事件为例,对网络舆情的波动性进行研究。【结果/结论】通过舆情数据的收集和分析,研究结果表明,该新闻舆论出现与GARCH模型的特点相一致,模型和数据可以通过调整参数实现完美拟合。
【Purpose/significance】With the rapid development of mobile Internet technology, the number of social network information is on the explosive growth phase. Public comments on the hot events have such great influence on public opinion that the analysis and monitoring of public opinion has become the focus of attention.【Method/process】Therefore, based on GARCH, taking the incident of ＂Gansu silver serial murder＂ as an example,this paper analyzes the volatility of the public opinion in the network.【Result/conclusion】The results show that the news public opinion is consistent with the characteristics of the GARCH model. The model and the data can be used together by adjusting the parameters.
作者
宋振超
SONG Zhen-chao(School of Humanities and Social Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023 China School of Government Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)
出处
《情报科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第10期116-119,共4页
Information Science
基金
2015年度江苏省社科基金青年项目(15MLC001)
2016年南京邮电大学党建与思想政治教育研究重点项目(XC216001)
2017年南京邮电大学教改项目(JG02417JX41)
关键词
GARCH模型
网络信息
舆情
波动性
GARCH model
network information
public opinion
volatility
