新疆1979—2013年降水量时空变化特征和趋势分析

A Research of Precipitation Trend and Fluctuation in Xinjiang from 1979 to 2013

新疆地区生态环境脆弱且对气候变化敏感,在全球气候变化背景下,新疆生态环境及水资源可持续发展方面均面临巨大的挑战。以新疆降水为重点研究对象,应用欧洲中期数值预报中心(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)的全球再分析气象数据(ECMWF Re-Analysis-Interim)探究新疆的降水变化规律。研究结果表明:新疆地区南北疆、山地、平原、盆地、荒漠和沙漠不同地域的气候差异极为显著,北疆的降水量多于南疆,西部的降水量多于东部。其中,西部伊犁地区降水量达东部哈密地区的近6倍;此外,山区降水量远多于盆地,天山山区的年降水量约235.65 mm。通过分析1979—2013年降水量数据时间序列和月、季度、年各气候区划的降水量均值和变化趋势发现,新疆不同气候区划的降水量差异显著。其中,天山北坡气候区降水充沛,多年平均降水量达278.52 mm,为新疆降水量最多的气候区,阿尔泰山气候区次之,多年平均降水量达221.91 mm,北疆准噶尔盆地气候区的年降水量为181.87 mm,而南疆塔里木盆地气候区的多年平均降水量仅为66.03 mm。本研究总体认为:新疆降水量时空分布呈现北疆多、南疆少,山地多、平原少,夏季多、冬季少的时空分布特征。研究结果将为新疆水资源对气候变化的响应研究起到重要的推动作用。

Xinjiang has the unique geographical position and weak ecological environment,so it is very sensitive to climate change.Under the background of global climate change,the sustainable development of ecological environment and water resources in Xinjiang face great challenge. In order to study the characteristics of precipitation variation in Xinjiang,the ECMWF reanalysis data ERA_Interim was used to investigate the change of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results show significant differences in climate in northern and southern Xinjiang as well as in the mountains,the plain,the basin,the wilderness and the desert,there is more precipitation in northern Xinjiang than in southern Xinjiang,and the western part is more than the eastern part. The precipitation in western Yili is almost 6times as high as that in eastern Hami,the precipitation in the mountains is more than that in the basin,and the annual precipitation in Tianshan Mountains is about 235. 65 mm. In addition,by analyzing the time series of precipitation in Xinjiang during 1979—2013,and monthly,quarterly and annual precipitation averages and variation trend of each climatic region,there are significant differences in precipitation in different climatic region in Xinjiang. There is abundant precipitation in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains,the annual average precipitation reaches 278. 52 mm where is the most precipitation place in Xinjiang and is followed by the precipitation in the mountains areas of Altai,and the annual average precipitation reaches 221. 91 mm. The annual average precipitation in the climate region of Junggar Basin in northern Xinjiang is 181. 87 mm,while the annual average precipitation in the climate region of Tarim Basin in southern Xinjiang is only 66. 03 mm. This study finds that the precipitation in northern Xinjiang is more than that in southern Xinjiang,the precipitation in mountainous area is more than that in plain,and the precipitation in summer is more than that in winter.This study provides an important scientific basis for studying the response of water resources to climate change in Xinjiang.