摘要
采用云南省1991年至2015年发生的5级以上地震灾害数据,分析地震灾害对云南省经济发展的影响情况.首先运用描述性统计分析证实了云南省地震灾害具有发生频率高,震级强度大,损失较严重,波及范围广的特征.同时经过分析得到了云南省地震灾害主要发生在中部、西部与东北部地区的分布特点.其次,通过运用岭回归模型分析发现,地震灾害对云南省地区生产总值产生了显著影响,在一定程度上影响到了当地的经济发展.随后,通过运用灰色关联度分析法分析了地震灾害造成的直接经济损失、政府投入的救灾资金以及地震发生的次数对云南省全社会固定资产投资的影响,根据计算的关联度大小进行了排序.最后,依据以上实证研究结果提出了相应的应对策略,希望能为云南省未来的防震减灾工作与经济发展提供参考依据.
Yunnan is one of the provinces in China that are often hit and much affected by earthquakes. The earthquake disaster becomes a great threat to the earthquake-infected people＇s life,properties and the development of Yunnan province. This paper uses the data related to the magnitude 5 earthquakes or stronger that happened in Yunnan province from 1991 to 2015 to analyze their economic impacts. Firstly,it uses the descriptive statistical method to verify the characteristics of these earthquake. Secondly,it uses the ridge regression model to study the impacts of direct economic losses caused by the earthquakes on the gross regional product. Thirdly,it uses the gray relation analysis to measure three different influential factors that have affected the investment of Yunnan province.Finally,it uses the results of the research to give some suggestions on the prospective measures and economic development of Yunnan province.
出处
《云南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2017年第5期426-432,共7页
Journal of Yunnan Minzu University:Natural Sciences Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金(71661030)
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(11YJA790040)
关键词
地震灾害
经济发展
岭回归
灰色关联度分析
earthquake disaster
economic development
ridge regression model
gray relation analysis
