工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响

An empirical study on the nonlinear effects of industrial economic structure and economic growth on environmental pollution

本文从生产要素投入端将环境污染引至索洛增长模型,理论考察工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响机制,基于1999—2014年我国30个省份的面板数据,以SO_2排放量作为环境污染水平的代理变量,采用面板平滑迁移回归(PSTR)模型检验全国及分区域工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响效应及区域差异性。研究结果表明:随着工业化进程的不断加快,工业产出及污染排放均呈现不断上升的趋势,但由于资本边际收益递减规律使得这种增长趋势逐渐减弱,最终导致经济增长和环境污染增长趋于稳态,当污染排放增长率降低为负时,经济增长对环境污染的影响作用由正向转变为负向。实证表明我国工业经济结构、经济增长与SO_2排放具有显著的产出水平门槛效应,随着经济产出水平由低区制平滑的过渡到高区制,经济增长对SO_2排放的影响由正向促进作用转变为负向减排效应,但工业经济结构对SO_2排放呈现逐渐增强正向促进作用,可见工业经济结构、经济增长对SO_2排放具有显著的非线性影响。此外,研究发现工业经济结构、经济增长对SO_2排放的非线性影响存在显著的区域差异性,东部地区经济增长与SO_2排放呈现显著的倒"U"型曲线关系,而在中西部地区表现出逐渐增强的促进作用,中部地区的工业经济结构对SO_2排放的促进作用最大,西部其次,东部最弱,研究还表明,减排技术水平以及环境治理投资增加对SO_2污染排放具有遏制作用,能源投资的增加加速了SO_2的排放。在未来经济发展中,应摒弃传统"高投入、高消耗"的工业化模式,政府应实施创新管理,完善环境保护立法,鼓励企业发展环境污染治理方面的技术,避免以环境容量过渡为代价,追求工业经济高质量、可持续发展模式。

The paper introduces the environmental pollution by using the Solowgrowth model from the input point of the production factor and extends it into thetwo-sector Solow growth model, to analyze the non-linear effect mechanism of industrial economic structure, economic growth on environmental pollution. Based on the panel data from 30 China provincial cities during 1999 to 2014, itselects SO 2 emissions as the level of environmental pollution agent variables, and employs panel smooth transition regression （ PSTR） model to test the non-linear effects and regional differencc between the industrial economic structure and economic growth. The results are as follows： first, output and pollution emissions of the industrial sector are on the rise as the process of But the diminishing law of capital marginal revenue makes thii growth trend gradually weakened, eventually leading to economic growth and environmental pollution growth tending to the steady state. When the pollution growth rate is reduced to negative, the impact of economic growth on environmental pollution will be from positive to negative. The empirical evidence shows that industrial economic structure, economic growth and SO 2 emissions have a significant output level threshold effect in China. As the level of economic output transitions from a low zone to a high zone, the impact of economic growth on SO 2 emissions is shifted emission reduction. However, the industrial economic structure shows a positive effect on SO 2 emission. It can be seen that industrialeconomic structure and economic growth have significant nonlinear effect on SO 2 emission. In addition, the are significant regional differences in the impact of industrial economic structure and economic growth on SO 2 emissions. Therelationship between economic growth and SO 2 emission emerges significant inverted ‘ U ’ curve in the eastern region, but displays agradual enhancement of the role in the central and western regions. Economic structure has the greatest impact on the SO 2 emission inthe central region, followed by the west and the weakest in the east. The study also shows that the level of emission reduction technology and the increase in investment in environmental management have a deterrent effect on SO 2 pollution emissions, and the increase in energy investment has accelerated SO 2 emissions. In the future economic development, we should abandon the traditional ＊ high input, high consumption ’ of the industrialization model. At the same time, the government needs to implement innovationmanagement, improve environmental protection legislation, and encourage enterprises to develop environmental pollution controltechnology. To avoid the cost of environmental capacity transition, the local government should pursue the high quality and sustainabledevelopment mode of the industrial economy.