金融节能、金融发展对碳排放变化的影响研究

Impact of financial energy conservation and financial development on the changes of CO_2 emissions

本文将金融节能与金融发展同时引入传统LMDI分解模型,并融合脱钩弹性指数,分析了两者对碳排放变化的影响机理。在此基础上,本文还检验了1997—2015年中国29个省区金融节能与金融发展的碳排放效应。研究发现:首先,尽管1997—2015年中国碳排放规模的扩张趋势较为明显,短期来看,这一演变仍然大体经历了三个阶段,即碳排放增量持续扩张期、碳排放增量波动下降期以及碳排放增量平稳期。其次,不仅金融节能、金融发展以及经济增长是在短期和长期诱发中国碳排放变化的三个最主要因素,而且前两者对中国碳排放变化的影响还大于后者。再次,金融节能对中国碳排放变化的短期和长期作用方向始终与金融发展对中国碳排放变化的短期和长期作用方向相反。最后,金融节能和金融发展与中国碳排放变化之间在短期内基本维持弱脱钩或强负脱钩两种状态,而在长期呈现强负脱钩状态,通过分解这些脱钩弹性状态的诱因,不仅直接影响和交互影响的作用方向始终相反,而且两者还分别在金融节能与中国碳排放脱钩弹性变动以及金融发展与中国碳排放脱钩弹性变动中发挥截然相反的作用。

This paper develops the traditional form of LMDI decomposition metliod by introducing financial energy conservation andfinancial development. Integrating the decoupling elastic index and using the provincial data of China from 1997 to 2015,the paper examines the effects of CO2 emissions which influenced by these two factors. The results show that： Firstly, although the scale of CO2 emissions in China expanded rapidly from 1997 to 2015, the short-term evolution trend can be divided into three periods, namely,expansion, declining and stable periods. Secondly, financial energy conservation, financial development and economic development are three major factors which cause the changes of CO2 emissions in short and long terms; besides, the impacts of the former two factors on CO2 emissions are almost larger than the later one. Thirdly, the influence directions of financial energy conservation and financial development are different. Finally,the decoupling elastic states between financial energy conservation and CO2 emissions,financialdevelopment and CO2 emissions keep week decoupling or strong negative decoupling in short term,andlong term. After decomposing the causes of those decoupling elastic states,not only the factors are always opposite, but also the influence directions of each factor in the two decoupling elastic are contrary.