基于HP滤波法的我国CPI波动规律研究

Study on the CPI Fuctuations Regularity on the basis of HP Filter Method

为了探索2001年以来我国CPI的变化情况,以2001年1月至2015年12月的CPI数据为研究对象,基于Census X12季节调整法和HP滤波法对我国CPI波动规律进行研究。将我国CPI的月度时间序列进行了分解,并对分解出的季节因素、长期趋势成分和循环波动成分进行相关分析。研究表明,我国CPI波动大致分为4个周期且受季节因素影响较大,但从长期来看CPI呈现出逐渐上涨趋势,且由于总供给和总需求不平衡引起的短期波动远远小于季节变动和长期通货膨胀对物价的冲击。

In order to explore the change of CPI in China since 2001,this paper studies the law of CPI fluctuation in our country,taking CPI data from January 2001 to December 2015 as the research object,by the way of X12 season adjustment method and HP filter method. It shows that the change is mainly manifested in two aspects. Onone hand,China’s CPI fluctuation is divided into four cycles and is influenced by seasonal factors. However,CPI shows a gradually rising trend overall. On the other hand,due to an imbalance of the total demand and the total supply,price levels have been emergedshort-term fluctuations. But this fluctuation is far less than the seasonal changes and long-term inflation on the impact of price levels.