基于随机生产模拟的间歇性电源可信容量计算

Credit Capacity Calculation of Intermittent Power Based on Stochastic Production Simulation

相比于传统的发电方式,间歇性电源的波动性、随机性强,给电力系统规划及运行带来了新的挑战。针对间歇性电源可信容量计算中的发电系统可靠性评估问题,提出了一种基于时序和持续混合的随机生产模拟方法。介绍了随机生产模拟和间歇性电源可信容量计算的一般概念,并给出了基于蒙特卡洛的负荷修正模型和多状态机组模型2种间歇性电源建模方法,阐述了基于时序和持续混合的随机生产模拟计算流程。通过算例对比了基于蒙特卡洛抽样的负荷修正模型与多状态机组模型的可信容量计算结果和间歇性电源容量可信度的变化趋势,进而进一步比较了风光混合系统的可信容量与单独考虑风光得到的可信容量之间的差异。研究结果表明:对于风电而言,蒙特卡洛法和多状态机组法参与随机生产模拟计算的效果相同,且多状态模型计算效率较高;随着装机的增大,光伏容量可信度比风电下降更快。

Compared with the traditional power generation, intermittent power supply has strong volatility and stochasticity, which brings new challenges to power system planning and operation. A stochastic production simulation method based on time series and continuous is proposed for the reliability evaluation of power generation system in intermittent power supply credible capacity calculation. Firstly, the general concept of stochastic production simulation and intermittent power supply credible capacity calculation is introduced; Secondly, the intermittent power modeling method based on Monte Carlo load correction model and multi-state machine model is proposed, and the calculation of stochastic production process is presented. Finally, the calculation results and change trend of intermittent power supply credibility capacity based on Monte Carlo sampling load model and multi state unit model are studied. The difference of credible capacity between the hybrid system and the individual system is compared. The results show as the followings： for the wind power, the Monte Carlo method and the multi state unit method have the same effect on the stochastic production simulation, and the calculation efficiency of the multi state model is higher~ With the increase of installed capacity, the credit capacity of PV is decreasing rapidly compared with that of wind power.