财政压力、政府支出竞争与地方政府债务——基于空间计量模型的分析

Fiscal Pressure,Expenditure Competition and Local Government Debts——An Analysis Based on Spatial Econometric Model

利用1997-2015年地方政府债务等相关面板数据,研究地方财政压力、政府支出竞争对地方政府债务规模扩张的影响,并运用空间计量模型,从全国整体和东、中、西部地区局部两个层面分别进行实证分析。研究表明:地方政府债务、地方财政压力与地方政府支出竞争均呈现一定的空间正相关特征;地方财政压力没有对地方政府债务规模的扩张起到促进作用,相反,在东、西部地区还起到一定抑制作用;地方政府支出竞争对地方债务规模的扩张起到促进作用,尤其在西部地区,此作用更为明显。基于以上研究,从明确不同区域债务问题的管理重点、规范地方政府支出竞争等方面提出相关建议。

This paper studies the effect of financial pressure and expenditure competition on local government debts with Chinese pro- vincial level panel data from 1997 to 2015.The spatial econometric model is used to make empirical analysis from two aspects： the whole country and the eastern, central and western regions. The results show that local government debts, financial pressure and local government expenditure competition show significantly positive spatial correlation. Local fiscal pressure does not promote the expansion of local government debts, on the contrary, in the eastern and western regions plays an inhibitory role. Local government expenditure competition plays an important role in the expansion of local government debts, especially in the western region. Based on above stud- ies, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to clarify the key points of debts management in different regions and how to regu- late the expenditure competition of local governments.