供给侧改革下基于VAR模型的现代物流与对外贸易关系研究——来自安徽省的样本数据

A Study of the Relationship between Modern Logistics and Foreign Trade Based on VAR Model under Supply Side Reform——The Sample Data from Anhui Province

以1998-2014年安徽省数据为样本,选取进出口总值(Z)、运输总量(LC)、物流网络里程(LR)3个变量建立现代物流与对外贸易关系研究的VAR模型,结果表明三者之间存在长期均衡关系,且进出口总值是运输总量的单向Granger原因,物流网络里程是进出口总值的单向Granger原因,即外贸发展对物流需求具有拉动作用,但物流需求对进出口贸易作用不明显;物流供给对进出口贸易具有促进作用,而进出口贸易对物流供给作用不显著。据此,从物流供给降本增效,物流企业服务升级,培育外贸竞争新优势,搭建对外开放平台四个方面提出相关对策建议。

Using 1998-2014 data of Anhui Province as the sample, the total transportation volume （LC） , and logistics network mileage selecting 3 variables including the import and export value （Z） , （LR） to establish VAR model to study the relationship between modem logistics and foreign trade, the results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among three variables, the import and export value is unidirectional Granger cause of the total transportation, and network mileage of logistics is unidirectional Granger cause of import and export value, namely the development of foreign trade has a stimulating effect on the logistics demand, but the role of the logistics demand on import and export trade is not obvious ; logistics supply has a promoting effect on foreign trade, but the effect of import and export trade on logistics supply is not significant. As a result, countermeasures and suggestions from four aspects are pro- posed： reducing cost and enhancing efficiency of logistics supply, upgrading logistics enterprise service, fostering new competitive ad- vantages of foreign trade, and building a platform for opening up.