基于灰色理论的化工与化学品事故趋势预测

Trend Forecast of the Accident about Chemical Industry and Chemicals based on Grey Theory

化工与化学品事故具有偶然性、破坏性等特点,研究化工与化学品事故趋势具有重要意义。以我国2011-2016年发生的较大以上化工和化学品事故为基础,建立灰色预测模型GM(1,1),对模型进行求解,结果表明GM(1,1)适用于化工和化学品事故预测,预测值和真实值较为吻合,丰富了事故预测方法。利用该模型预测了2017年和2018年我国较大以上化工和化学品事故情况,对事故预防具有指导意义。

The accident about chemical industry and chemicals has the characteristics of contingency, destructive, etc. It has great significance to study the trend of accidents. Based on the accident about the larger chemical industry and chemicals that occurred in 2011-2016 in China, establish grey prediction model GM （ 1,1 ） , and solve the model. The results show that GM （ 1,1 ） is suitable for accident forecast of chemical industry and chemicals. The predicted value and the real value match. It enriches the forecasting method of accident. Use this model to predict the accident about the larger chemical industry and chemicals in 2017 and 2018 in China. This has guiding significance for accident prevention.