中国人口的广义高龄化--基于分省模拟的全国层面分析

Generalized Aging of the Chinese Population:A National Level Analysis Based on Provincial Simulations

中国人口年龄结构已进入广义高龄化进程,主要表现为整个人口系统具有不同社会经济意义的各大年龄组人口中低龄组人口占比下降,高龄组人口占比升高。全面两孩政策实施未能改变这一大趋势。高龄化前期阶段(2011—2060)是广义高龄化高速发展阶段,有多个高龄化速度高峰,各大年龄组人口规模及其增长速度和内部结构也将处于波动震荡之中。从广义高龄化角度看,中国未来主要蕴藏着四大系统性人口红利,面临着四大系统性人口风险。高龄化前期是人口年龄结构转变的最重要时期,社会如能适应这种以高龄化为取向的大趋势,将会赢得长期发展的主动权。

The age structure of the Chinese population has entered a period of generalized aging,expressed mainly in a decrease in younger age groups'share of the population and an increase in that of older age groups across broad age groups with varying socioeconomic significance within the total population.The implementation of unconditioned two-child policy has failed to change this trend.In the first phase of population aging(2011-2060),population aging develops rapidly,with a number of peaks,and the size,growth rate and internal structure of broad age groups fluctuates.In terms of generalized aging,China will enjoy four major systemic dividends and face four systemic risks.The first phase of aging is the most important for changes in the age structure of the population;society will gain the initiative in long-term development as long as it can adapt to the overall trend towards aging.