加拿大天然气供需与出口展望

Natural Gas in Canada:Supply-Demand and Export Outlook

加拿大是全球天然气生产和出口大国之一,但目前其出口的天然气几乎全部通过管道出口到了美国,出口形式和目标市场单一。在美国页岩气革命和油气价格低迷影响下,加拿大需要在天然气的生产和出口方面尽快转变,从地区性天然气供应商向全球性与天然气出口国转变,面向北美以外地区的LNG出口将是推动未来加拿大天然气行业发展的主要动力。受气价、基础设施等因素影响,加拿大到2020年前后才能开始LNG出口。届时,整个北美地区也将由天然气净消费区变为净出口区,进而影响全球天然气贸易格局。

Canada is one of the world＇s biggest natural gas producers and exporters. But almost all of natural gas exported from Canada is transited to the U.S. via pipelines between these two countries. Faced with shale gas revolution and weak price, Canada needs to transit rapidly its natural gas operation from a regional supplier to a global exporter. LNG shipping to beyond North America becomes the most important motivation that can drive natural gas development in Canada. Due to low gas price and lack of related infrastructures, Canada could not export LNG until 2020. By then, plus the U.S. shale gas export, North America would become a natural gas net export region. This may affect the structure of global natural gas market in the future.