燃煤火力发电项目风险评价研究

Study on risk evaluation on coal-fired power generation project

针对燃煤火力发电项目技术要求高、投资金额大、周期长的特点而导致项目投资风险较大的现状,运用科学的方法分析项目风险因素,通过全面梳理燃煤火力发电项目的风险点,从市场风险、技术风险、工程风险、资金风险、政策风险和其他风险6个维度构建了指标体系,并运用模糊层次分析法构建了燃煤火力发电项目风险评价模型,以确定各个风险因素对项目的影响程度,为实际项目风险评估提供科学依据。最后运用神华集团1 000 MW项目进行实证分析,结果表明:构建的模型具有较强可实施性和操作性,对燃煤火力发电项目的风险评价有一定的指导意义。

According to the high technical requirements, high investment and long period features of the coal-fired power gen- eration project and a high project investment risk status, a scientific method was applied to analyze the risk factors of the project. With a full preparation on the risk points of the coal-fired power generation project, the index system was established from six dimensions of the market risk, technical risk, engineering risk, funding risk, policy risk and other risk. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was applied to establish the risk evaluation model of the coal-fired power generation project in or- der to set up each risk factor affected to the project and to provide the scientific references to the risk evaluation of the actu- al project. The empirical analysis was conducted with the 1000 MW project of Shenhua Group. The results showed that the es- tablished mode would have a strong implementation and operation and would have certain guide significances to the risk evalu- ation of the coal-fired power generation project.