近60年来叶尔羌河平原绿洲气候变化特征分析

Analysis of the Characteristics of Climate Change of Oasis in Yarkant River Plain in Recent 60 Years

文章利用巴楚和莎车地面气象站实测数据,运用EXCEL、SPSS22.0统计软件,分析叶尔羌河平原绿洲近63年来各气象要素时空分布规律。结果表明:(1)气温、降水量、水汽压呈现增加趋势,日照时数、相对湿度、平均风速呈现减少趋势。气温增温趋势通过99%置信度检验,降水量、水汽压增加趋势通过95%置信度检验,日照时数、平均风速减少趋势通过99%置信度检验,相对湿度减少趋势通过95%置信度检验。(2)自80年代起各气象要素开始发生显著性变化。80年代降水量的增湿量约为60年代的7倍,90年代日照时数的减少量约为70年代的10倍、水汽压的贡献度最大为53Pa、平均风速的减少量最大为0.4m/s,21世纪初气温的增温量是60年代的6倍、相对湿度的减少量约为70年代的20倍。(3)各气象要素季节变化不一致。气温秋、春季增加趋势显著,降水秋、夏季增湿趋势显著,日照时数、水汽压在冬、秋季变化趋势最明显,相对湿度和平均风速分别在春、冬季和春、夏季减少趋势显著。(4)各气象要素空间分布不一致。气温、降水量、平均风速表现出北部大于南部;日照时数、相对湿度、水汽压表现出南部大于北部。

By the Bachu and Shache meteorological stations measured data, using EXCEL and SPSS22.0 statistical software, to analyse the spatial distribution of meteorological elements of Yarkant River Plain Oasis in recent 63 years. The results showed that ： （ 1 ） temperature, precipitation, water vapor pressure showed increasing trend, relative humidity, sunshine hours, average wind speed showed a decreasing trend. The temperature warming trend by 99% confidence test, precipitation, water vapor pressure increased by 95% confidence test, sunshine hours, average wind speed decreased by 99% confidence test, the relative humidity decreased by 95% confidence test. （2） 1980s many meteorological elements began to significantly change. Rainfall in 80s humidification was about 7 times in 60s. In 90s the amount of sunshine hours reduced was about 10 times in 70s, the maximum amount of average wind speed reduced was 0.4m/s, the largest contribution to the vapor pressure was 53Pa. At the beginning of twenty-first Century the temperature was 4 times in 60s, a decrease in relative humidity was about 20 times in 70s. （3） In different season meteorological factors were not consistent. The temperature increased in spring, autumn, precipitation in autumn, summer, sunshine duration, water vapor pressure in winter and autumn was the most obvious change trend, relative humidity and average wind speed in spring, winter and spring, summer decreased significantly. （4） The spatial distribution of different meteorological elements were not consistent. The temperature, precipitation, average wind speed showed greater in the north than in the south; relative humidity, sunshine duration, water vapor pressure showed the south than the north.