我国煤炭进口是否会引起国际煤炭价格变化

Will the Coal Imports of China Fluctuate the International Coal Prices?

选取2008年~2016年时间序列数据,在协整分析基础上建立向量自回归VAR模型,综合运用误差修正模型、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数等研究方法,就我国煤炭进口量对国际煤炭价格影响的效应进行实证分析。结果表明:从长期来看,中国煤炭进口量和国际煤炭价格之间存在长期均衡协整关系;从短期来看,我国煤炭进口量和国际煤炭价格之间存在双向Granger因果关系,我国煤炭进口量的当期波动对国际煤炭价格具有显著影响,我国煤炭进口量短期内可以促使国际煤炭价格上涨,但随着时间推移国际煤炭价格涨幅将逐步缩小。

This paper selects time sequence data from 2008 to 2016, build vector self regression VAR. model based on co-integration analysis, comprehensively uses error correction model, Granger Causality test and impulse response function to take an empirical analysis of the effect of China＇s coal imports on intemational coal prices. The results indicate that： in the long run, there exists long term balanced co-integration correlation between China＇s coal imports and international coal price; in the short run, there exist dual directional Granger causality between China＇s coal imports and international coal price. The current fluctuation in China＇s coal imports has a significant impact on international coal prices, and China＇s coal imports can push the rise in international coal price in the short run, but the rising range shrinks versus time.