生产方式转型背景下中国肉鸡产业链价格传导研究

Research on the Price Transmission of Broiler Industry Chain under the Background of Transforming Production Mode

基于2000年1月~2015年12月饲料、活鸡与白条鸡市场价格月度数据,运用向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等对中国肉鸡产业链价格传导机制及其特征进行了深入研究。结果显示:长期内中国肉鸡产业链整合情况较好,短期内中国肉鸡产业链价格协整系统具有显著自我修正功能,且产业链价格传导具有一定滞后性;肉鸡产业链顺向价格传导效率较高、逆向传导效果不佳;外部价格波动冲击产生的影响不断增大,自身价格惯性冲击产生的影响不断减弱,肉鸡产业链价格波动的相互影响关系得到增强。基于研究结论提出了相关对策建议,以便为制定相关市场调控和产业融合发展政策提供有意义的参考。

Based on the monthly data of the price of feed, living chicken and chicken from January 2000 to December 2015, this paper applies vector error correction model, impulse response function to make deep research on China＇s broiler indnstrial chain price transmission mechanism and characteristic. The results show that： the long-terrn integration of broiler industry chain is better, and the short-term price co-integration system has a significant self-con＇ection mechanism, the price transmission is lagged; the forward price transmission effciency is higher, while the impact of reverse conduction is not ideal; the influence of own price inertia shocks is weakening while the external influence is raising, and the interaction of price flucmarion among the industrial chain is enhanced. Based on the research theory, this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures to provide reference to make market control and industrial integration development policy.