基于供求关系的我国羊肉价格波动实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of China's Mutton Price Fluctuation based on Supply-demand Relationship

随着我国国民收入不断提高,居民消费水平不断提升,羊肉产量及消费量快速增长,羊肉市场价格快速上涨,并出现了较大波动。以2000年~2015年我国羊肉供求量为样本分析这一时期我国羊肉市场价格变动。通过实证分析发现,我国羊肉市场价格与市场需求,国内产量以及上期市场价格存在显著关系,羊肉市场价格波动受供求关系影响较大。同时通过建立VAR模型从价格传导机制分析,发现国内供给量对羊肉价格和国内羊肉需求都有较大影响;最后提出通过引导养羊业发展,保证我国羊肉产量,稳定羊肉市场价格,促进我国养羊业畜牧业的健康发展。

With the continuous rising in people＇s income and consumption level, the mutton production and consumption rapidly increased, and the mutton market price increased rapidly with great fluctuation. This paper takes the supply-demand number of mutton from 2000 to 2015 to analyze the price fluctuation in China. From the empirical analysis, there exists significant relationship between mutton market price and market demand, domestic production and last previous market price. The supple-demand relationship has a greater impact on the mutton market price. This paper builds VAR model to analyze from price transmission mechanism, and finds that the domestic supple has larger impact on mutton price and domestic mutton demand; At last, this paper puts forward guiding sheep industry development, guaranteeing mutton production, stabilizing mut- ton market price and improving the healthy development of sheep husbandry.