2017年9月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China,September 2017

目的评估2017年9月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据既往监测数据,预计9月全国总体的突发公共卫生事件数和病例数较8月有所上升,主要与学校开学后常见传染病事件逐渐增加有关。国内多地暴发本地传播的登革热疫情,随着人员流动,有媒介伊蚊分布的省份本地传播风险也将上升;而基孔肯雅热、寨卡病毒病等其他蚊媒传染病也存在输入性病例和输入后发生本地传播的风险。人感染H7N9禽流感将继续出现散发病例。9月仍然是食物中毒高发期,且毒蘑菇中毒往往是引起死亡的主要原因。南方地区的季节性流感仍处于高位,北方地区流感水平处于较低水平,但随着学校开学,暴发疫情将增多。中东呼吸综合征存在输入的可能,但大规模传播的风险极低。2017年夏季我国流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)疫情有所升高,但目前疫情已经处于下降趋势。结论预计2017年9月我国的突发公共卫生事件数将有所上升;需特别关注登革热、寨卡病毒病、基孔肯雅热等蚊媒传染病,重点关注人感染H7N9禽流感,一般关注食物中毒、季节性流感和中东呼吸综合征,了解乙脑疫情的风险。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in September 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher in September than in August 2017,which was associated with the increase of disease outbreaks among students after school reopening. Several domestic areas reported local dengue fever outbreaks,and the risk of local transmission of dengue fever would increase in the other areas with abundance of aedes mosquito because of the movement of people. There is also the risk of importation and local spread of Chikungunya fever,Zika virus disease and other mosquito borne diseases. Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza A（ H7N9） virus might continue to occur. Food poisoning would still have a high incidence in September,and mushroom poisoning would be the main cause of death. Seasonal influenza incidence would remain high in southern provinces and lowin northern provinces,but the outbreaks might increase among students due to school reopening. It is possible for M iddle East Respiratory Syndrome（ M ERS） to spread into China,but the risk of mass transmission is very low. This summer,theincidence of Japanese encephalitis（ JE） increased,but it is in a downward trend. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in China would increase in September 2017. Particular concern should be paid to the Zika virus disease,dengue fever,Chikungunya fever and other mosquito borne diseases; close concern to human H7N9 virus infection; and general concern to food poisoning,seasonal influenza and M ERS. The risk of JE should be recognized.