从大国博弈视角解读与应对第三次抵消战略

Understanding and coping with the Third Offset Strategy from the perspective of superpower games

在常规军力优势相对衰落、经费预算日益缩紧的背景下,美军为维持其军事霸权,提出了旨在实现兵力全球自由投送的第三次抵消战略(Third Offset Strategy)。通过梳理抵消战略的现实背景、历史沿革和战略目的,我们发现如果把第三次抵消战略简单视作美军的军事技术发展战略甚至军事战略,就会陷入片面而幼稚的认识误区。除了防范潜在的技术诱骗和技术突袭,更应该从大国博弈的战略视角出发,全面审视和应对第三次抵消战略对我国的挑战。美军实现国家利益的需求导向、自我变革的决心勇气和创新能力、科技兴军的先进理念和以军为主的军民融合成功经验值得借鉴。要以我为主参与制定未来战争的"游戏规则",做到"你打你的,我打我的";要深入研究美军作战体系和美国国家战略的薄弱环节,有针对性地"攻其所必救",从而化解重大安全挑战,争得新的战略机遇期。

Under the realistic background of fading conventional forces advantages and reducing military budget, the US army proposed the Third Offset Strategy for global power projection in order to maintain its military hegemony. Through analyzing the backgrounds, evolution and strategic goals of offset strategies, one can discover that it is superficial to consider the Third Offset Strategy as development plans for military technologies, even military strategies. Apart from precaution against the potential technology surprises and deceptions, it should be paid more attention on how to research and cope with the current challenges comprehensively from the perspective of superpower games. As a result, this paper abstracts the successful experiences of US army, including the requirements orientation for national strategic interests, capabilities of self-reform and innovation, advanced theories in arms-building with science and technology and management system for military and civilian integration. Moreover, the authors summarize countermeasures to fight back the Third Offset Strategy and win the game in the long-term competition.