长期利率持续走低的全球现象

Low Long-Term Interest Rates As a Global Phenomenon

不同国家之间的利率联动越发紧密,超低利率已成为全球的普遍现象。本文比较发达国家与发展中国家的基础利率。自然利率在许多国家持续走低,因美国的货币政策而导致诸多国家的短期利率趋近于零。然而,联邦基金利率已很难作用于长期利率,对经济金融的影响也日趋式微。

International linkages between interest rates in different currencies are strong, and ultra-low rates have become a global phenomenon. This paper compares how interest rates in advanced economies and in emerging economies are conditioned by two global benchmarks - the Federal funds rate at the short end and the ＂world＂ real interest rate at the tong end. Real equilibrium policy rates （the natural rate） have fallen in many countries, and short-term rates worldwide have been further depressed by many years of the US policy rate close to zero. Nevertheless, changes in the Federal funds rate have less effect on longer-term rates, and thus on financing conditions, than is often supposed.