全球化面临挑战但不会逆转——兼论中国在全球经济治理中的角色

Globalization Faces Challenges but Will not Be Reversed:Economic Governance Role of China in the Global Economic Governance

在过去的一年多里,针对全球化的质疑越来越多而且越来越激烈。全球化是否因此发生逆转?针对这个问题,结合全球化发展历程,本文利用世界银行数据,对全球化进行分析发现,全球化并没有逆转。然而,全球化正面临全球收入差距扩大、贫困问题依然突出、全球贸易统计方法落后、老龄化日益明显、网络安全监管缺位、全球金融体系社会基础薄弱等严峻挑战。唯有全球化持续,我们才有可能共同解决这些问题,让全世界共享全球化的成果。当全球化走在十字路口的时候,作为仅次于美国的经济总量最大的国家,中国将在全球化中扮演何种角色以及采取何种举措,都会引起世界的关注。结合中国的绝对经济与相对经济规模、中国对能源的掌控能力、中国出口规模与附加值获取的匹配度、中国人民币的国际认可度以及中国的创新指数等指标分析,本文认为在未来很长一段时期内,中国都将着眼于成为全球经济治理的参与者。为推动全球化的顺利进行,中国要在加强国家治理的基础上,积极参与区域治理与全球治理;通过国际市场开发和国内市场开发的良性互动,夯实中国参与全球化的经济基础;依托中国特色新型智库,及时与全世界分享中国参与全球经济治理的智慧。

In the past year, the doubt over globalization has been increasingly hot. Does it mean that globalization has reversed？ For this question, the tendency of globalization is analyzed by using the data of World Bank combined with the reflection of the globalization history. It is found that globalization has not been reversed. However, the globalization has been challenged by a series of problems. It needs to face the reality of the enlarging global income disparity, the huge size of poverty, the outstanding aging population. It also should face the dragged statistical method of international trade, the insufficient supervision of internet security as well as the weak infrastructure of the global financial system. Only when the globalization continues, we may solve these problems arising from globalization and ensure people from the world enjoy the fruit of globalization. What China, which has the huge size economy next to the United States of America, will be and what it will do has stimulated the interest of the world when globalization is at the critical point. Combined with the analysis of the absolute and relative economic size of China, the dependence index of energy, the size of export and the ability to acquire gains from trade, and the relative share of RMB in the Special Drawing Right and its acceptance by the official foreign exchange reserves as well as the global innovation index, it is pointed out that China will be continuously an active participant in the globalization instead of a leader. In order to facilitate the globalization, China needs to strengthen the national governance, and participate actively in the regional governance and global governance. By managing the relationship between deep openness toward the domestic enterprises and gradual openness toward the foreign capital, China can establish a solid foundation for national development. By relying on the think tank, China can share its wisdom of governance with the whole world immediately.