基于空间自相关的东海带鱼聚集特征年代际变化

Inter-decadal variation of spatial aggregation of Trichiurus japonicus in East China Sea based on spatial autocorrelation analysis

海洋鱼类通常以集群的形式分布在特定空间内,具有高度的空间异质性特征.基于1971—2011年中国机轮拖网渔业捕捞统计及底拖网科学调查获取的东海带鱼数据,并结合夏季研究水域内海表温度及黑潮区PN断面表层盐度数据,利用空间统计方法对东海带鱼资源的聚集特征进行年代际分析.全局自相关性分析显示,1971—2011年Moran I指数先减小再增大且均为正值,表明东海带鱼聚集性呈先减弱再增强的趋势;PN断面表层盐度均值变化趋势与之相反.局部自相关性分析显示,除1971年带鱼热点分布受作业水域范围限制而集中在中部外,1981—2011年带鱼分布热点区域呈现先向南部外海移动,随后逐步向北部外海移动的格局,且相应的热点分布范围亦呈现先集中后扩散的趋势.带鱼热点分布区域随海表温度第一模态变化做适应性移动,且均靠近黑潮北分支左侧水域.

Marine fish shows high heterogeneity in spatial aggregation. We analyzed the inter-decadal variations of stock density for Trichiurus japonicus in East China Sea（ ECS） using geo-statistical approaches such as spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis,based on the data of T. japonicus from both bottom trawl fishery and research surveys in the open waters of ECS during 1971 to 2011,combined with the sea surface temperature（ SST） and surface salinity data in the PN section in August. The global spatial autocorrelation statistics showed that Moran＇s I firstly decreased and then went up,indicating that the spatial aggregation patterns of T. japonicus was weakened in the beginning and then increased during 1971 to 2011. The surface salinity in the PN section displayed the opposite trend during the same period. The local spatial autocorrelation statistics showed that the population firstly moved to the southern ECS and then to the northern ECS except in 1971 in which the population concentrated in the middle of ECS because of the restriction of offshore fishing ground. The movement of hotspot areas of T. japonicus adaptively varied with the first EOF mode of SST in summer（ sum EOF1）,which indicated that the hotspot areas first moved southeastward with decreasing sum EOF1,and moved northeastward with increasing sum EOF1,but all of the hotspot areas were close to the northward branch of the Kuroshio Current.