2006～2015年哈尔滨市南岗区恶性肿瘤发病与死亡趋势分析

Trends of cancer incidence and mortality in Nangang district of Harbin from 2006 to 2015

目的分析2006~2015年恶性肿瘤发病率和死亡率,预测未来5年发病率和死亡率水平。方法搜集哈尔滨市南岗区2006~2015年恶性肿瘤发病死亡登记数据,计算发病率/死亡率、调整发病率/调整死亡率,利用Join Point分析10年间恶性肿瘤发病/死亡趋势,年龄-时期-队列的贝叶斯模型预测2016~2020年发病率/死亡率。结果 2006~2015年男性和女性恶性肿瘤发病率分别为266.71/10万和254.06/10万,中标率分别为191.56/10万和172.47/10万。10年间男性和女性恶性肿瘤死亡率分别为214.21/10万和140.92/10万,中标率分别为150.36/10万和88.95/10万。10年间恶性肿瘤发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势,男性发病率年度变化百分比(annual-percentage-changes,APC)为3.2%(95%CI:2.5%~4.0%;),女性为5.4%(95%CI:4.4%~6.4%);男性死亡率APC为2.9%(95%CI:1.2%~4.7%),女性为2.9%(95%CI:1.0%~4.0%)。基于年龄-时期-队列的贝叶斯模型预测2020年发病率和死亡率,男性和女性发病率和死亡率将分别达到335.77/10万、364.82/10万和250.84/10万、152.62/10万。结论南岗区恶性肿留发病率和死亡率呈逐年增长趋势,女性发病率增长趋势快于男性。预测未来5年发病率和死亡率仍呈增长趋势。

Objective To analyze the cancer incidence and mortality in Nangang district of Harbin from 2006 to2015 and assess the trends within 5 years. Methods The cancer incidence and mortality data were collected from the Cancer Registry Database in Nangang district of Harbin between 2006 and 2015. The incidence/mortality and the adjusted incidence/mortality were calculated,and 10-year incidence/mortality trends were analyzed by Join Point. The cancer incidence/mortality between 2016 and 2020 was predicted by age-period-cohort Bayesian model. Results During the period of2006-2015,the average annual cancer incidence rates were 266. 71/100 000 and 254. 06/100 000 for males and females,and the Chinese age standardized rates（ CASRs） were 191. 56/100 000 and 172. 47/100 000,respectively. The average annual cancer mortality rates were 214. 21/100 000 and 140. 92/100 000 for males and females,and the CASRs were150. 36/100 000 and 88. 95/100 000,respectively. During the 10 years the cancer incidence and mortality rates presented an increasing trend. The annual-percentage-changes of incidence（ APCincidence） were 3. 2%（ 95% CI： 2. 5%-4. 0%） for males,and 5. 4%（ 95% CI： 4. 4%-6. 4%） for females. The APCmortalitywere 2. 9%（ 95% CI： 1. 2%-4. 7%） for males and2. 9%（ 95% CI： 1. 0%-4. 0%） for females. Based on the age-period-cohort Bayesian model,by the year of 2020,the incidence rates and the mortality rates will reach 335. 77/100 000 and 250. 84/100 000 for males,and 364. 82/100 000 and152. 62/100 000 for females,respectively. Conclusion In Nangang district,the incidence and mortality of malignant tumors are increased annually,and those for females are increasing more significantly. It is predicted that the incidence and mortality will keep rising in the next five years.