广义多维空间效应下的金融冲击路径动态演变机制

Financial Shock Path Dynamic Evolution Mechanism Considering Generalized Multidimensional Space Effect

金融领域虚拟化趋势加快,促进金融市场与实体经济的协同发展迫在眉睫,捕捉各市场之间的空间效应,提高估计精度成为金融领域研究热门。本文通过引入区域空间引力效应,结合金融市场和实体经济指标,定义广义经济测度距离和引力空间权重矩阵,构造广义多维经济空间,建立全球金融系统网络拓扑结构和空间计量层次模型,利用Bonacich网络关键性节点测度算法,研究金融冲击路径动态演变机制。研究表明:广义多维经济空间捕捉金融市场多维空间效应具有显著优势,金融冲击存在区域聚集性且动态演变,冲击路径关键性节点市场与金融市场发达程度没有必然联系,欠发达金融市场也可能成为关键性节点,关键性节点市场形成的冲击传染速度更快,传导范围更广。

With the accelerating of virtualization trends of financial field,it is imminent to promote coordinated development of financial markets and the real economy.Capturing the spatial effect between the various markets to improve the estimation accuracy of financial field has become hot research.We firstly combine financial markets and real economy indicators by introducing spatial gravitational effect of the regional economic,and define economic metric and gravitational space weight matrix to establish generalized multidimensional economic space.On this basis,we build global financial system network topology and spatial econometrics level model,and use Bonacich Critical Network Nodes Algorithm to study dynamic evolution mechanism of financial shock path.The research results show that when capturing multidimensional space effects of financial markets,generalized multidimensional economic space has a significant advantage.The financial shock exist regional aggregation and dynamic evolution.It has no necessarily links between shock path＇s critical node and development level of financial markets.Underdeveloped financial markets can also become a key node of shock path.When market fluctuations occur in a key node of financial network,the shock spreads faster and wider.