安徽省土地承载力研究

Research on Land Carrying Capacity of Anhui

为服务土地管理实践,从耕地人口承载力、建设用地人口承载力的角度研究了安徽省及各市县的土地承载力,还从生态环境承载量的角度研究了建设用地最大量。研究结果表明,安徽省建设用地还有很大挖潜空间。按人均100m2计算,安徽省及各市建设用地人口承载水平在20%~40%之间。多元回归结果表明,区域常住人口、土地总面积对建设用地人口承载水平的影响显著。但GDP、人均GDP和二三产业占比对建设用地人口承载力的影响不显著。利用GIS的研究表明,在扣除生态必需用地后,安徽省建设用地生态适宜量为36 847km2,超过目前的建设用地总面积。耕地人口承载力研究结果表明,安徽省目前的耕地面积能满足全省常住人口粮食需求,但各市县差别很大。若不提高单产,在耕地面积不断减少的情况下,安徽省到2020年可能会面临粮食缺口。

In order to serve the land management, this paper studies land carrying capacity of Anhui from three aspects, population carrying capacity of construction land and cultivated land,maximum amount of construction land based on eco-environment carrying capacity. The research showed that Anhui province still had potential for more population. According to 100 square meters per capita, the population carrying capacity of Anhui and all its cities are between 20%- 40%. Multiple regression analysis showed that population, land area had significant influence on the carrying capacity of construction land. GDP, per capita GDP and proportion of the second and tertiary industry didn＇t have significant influence on carrying capacity of construction land. This paper calculated the maximum amount of construction land based on eeo-environment carrying capacity, by considering the minimum green space needed using GIS. The research showed that the largest amount of construction land in Anhui province is 36847 square kilometers,which exceeds the existing construction land. Research on population carrying capacity of cultivated land showed that,the existing cultivated land of Anhui can produce enough grain to meet the demand of population,but it varied at counties and cities. However,if we do not increase per-unit yields,we may face a grain gap by 2020 if the cultivated land continues to decrease.