经济增长对寿险业发展影响的实证研究——基于省际面板数据模型

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Economic Growth on the Development of Life Insurance Industry——Based on Provincial Panel Data Model

经济增长会促进保险业的发展。然而,寿险业与非寿险业性质不同,差异较大。通过建立省际面板数据模型,对寿险业与经济增长的关系单独做实证分析,考察不同区域经济增长的异同对国内不同省份寿险业发展的实际影响。采用国内最新的省际数据,经过平稳性检验、模型形式选择、参数估计和稳健性检验等规范的计量步骤后,得到稳健的回归结果。定量揭示了经济增长对于国内寿险业发展的刺激作用和区域性因素对寿险业的不同影响。根据此结果,向全国和区域寿险公司、中央和地方政府、保险监管机构提出经营管理、宏观调控、风险防范等方面的政策建议。政策制定者可以根据建议及时调整经济政策,更好地促进经济与寿险行业的协调发展。

Economic growth will promote the development of the insurance industry. However, the nature of life insurance and non-life insurance industry is quite different. Through the establishment of inter-provincial panel data model, the relationship between life insurance industry and economic growth is analyzed solely and the actual impact of different regional economic growth on the development of life insurance industry in different provinces is discussed. Using the latest domestic inter-provincial data, after a stationary test, model selection, parameter estimation, robustness test and other standardized econometric procedures, get a robust regression results. Quantitatively reveals the stimulating effect of economic growth on the development of domestic life insurance industry and the different effects of regional factors on life insurance industry. According to this result, policy recommendations on management, macro-control and risk prevention are put forward to national and regional life insurance companies, central and local governments and insurance regulators. Policy makers can adjust their economic policies in a timely manner to better promote the coordinated development of the economy and life insurance industry.