经济进一步开放对宏观金融的影响及对策——基于“不可能三角”理论的分析

The Influence of Further Opening up the Economy on Macro Finance and the Countermeasures——Based on the Analysis of the Theory of “Impossible Triangle”

经济进一步开放对宏观金融运行的影响是需要深入研究的热点问题。本文在三元悖论的基础上,分析了大国宏观经济调控内外目标的关系,归纳了相关经济变量之间的冲突与依存关系,从不同行为主体目标与能力的视角重新阐述了"不可能三角"理论。对一国而言,国际经济运行是一系列的事件,它涉及到本国政府、外国政府和国际资本三大行为主体之间的利益冲突。对我国而言,破解经济开放与宏观金融稳定困境,需要做好顶层设计,协调联动逐步推进对外经济规则改革,其中制定动态综合平衡的对外经济活动规则是化解国际经济困境,实现宏观经济平稳运行持续增长的关键。

The impact of further liberalization on macro finance is a hot issue that requires in-depth research. On the basis of the ternary paradox, this paper analyzes the relationship between the internal and external goals of macroeconomic regulation and control, sums up the conflict and dependency relationship between the relevant economic variables, and redefines the ＂impossible triangle＂ from the perspective of the objectives and abilities of different actors.For a country, the international economic operation contains a series of events. It involves the conflict of interests among the three main actors of the government, foreign government and international capital.To solve the dilemma of economic opening and macroeconomic stability, China needs to do top-level design, coordinate and promote the reform of foreign economic rules gradually. The key to resolving international economic difficulties and realizing the steady growth of macroeconomic operation is to formulate a dynamic and balanced foreign economy Activity Rules.