基于贝叶斯网络的网络信息安全态势评估

Network Space Combat Information Security Defense Situation Study Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

网络空间中信息安全防御态势难以进行精确、自主、完整可控的评估,针对这种情况提出基于模糊动态贝叶斯网络的态势评估方法,对防御系统中的态势因素在不同时间的状态进行模糊和概率处理,构建了态势感知和态势估计模型,将初始条件概率、状态转移概率及观测数据输入建立的模型中进行仿真实验,将仿真结果与静态贝叶斯网络模型评估的结果进行对比,实验结果表明使用这种方法进行评估综合了更多态势要素间的反馈关系和观测信息,可以较好地反映网络空间作战信息安全防御态势动态变化的客观规律,做到精确快速、主动高效的评估。

In the network space, the information security defense situation is difficult to carry out the accurate, independent and complete controllable evaluation. Aiming at this situation, the situation evaluation method based on the fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network is proposed, and the fuzzy and probabilistic processing of the situation factors is taken in the defense system at different times, a model of situation perception and situation estimation is constructed, initial conditional probability, state transition probability and observation data are inputted into the established model to make simulation experiment. The experimental results show that by using this method, the feedback relation and the observation information of the more situation factors are synthesized, which can reflect the objective law about the dynamic change of the information security defense situation in the network space, so as to make the accurate, fast and efficient evaluation.