司法证明概率论:理论基础、应用局限与前景展望

The Probability Theory of Judicial Proof:Theoretical Basis,Application Limitations and Prospects

与西方整体研究态势相比,"司法证明概率论"这一研究主题在中国很少受到重视。这值得深刻反思。司法证明所具有的盖然性为概率论在其中的运用创造了话语空间与理论基础。作为一种处理不确定问题的有效工具,概率论显然能够辅助司法证明活动。总体而言,概率论在司法证明中的运用可以说是困境与前景并存:一方面,"司法证明概率论"面临着诸多应用局限;另一方面,随着相关知识的发展,概率论在司法证明中的运用将呈现出广阔前景。时值中国司法改革,司法证明概率论不仅有助于打破传统司法理论中的一些误区,重塑科学的司法理念,而且对于建构新司法制度与规则具有重要启发意义。有鉴于此,中国证据法学研究不应当忽视这一研究主题。

In contrast to the overall research situation in the West,the subject of the probability theory of judicial proof is rarely taken seriously in China. It is worth a deep reflection. The probability of judicial proof creates the discourse space and theoretical basis for the use of probability theory. As an effective tool for dealing with uncertainties, probability theory is clearly able to assist in judicial proof. In general, the employment of the probability theory in judicial proof could be said to be a situation with difficulties and prospects coexist. On the one hand, the probability theory of judicial proof faces many application limitations. On the other hand, with the development of the relevant knowledge, the probability theory in the use of judicial proof will show a broad prospect. In the judicial reform of China, the probability theory of judicial proof not only helps to break some misunderstandings in the traditional judicial theory and develop the scientific idea of justice, but also has important significance for constructing the new judicial system and rules. In view of this, Chinese evidence law research should not ignore this research topic.