外来人口对城市房价的影响研究——基于省级城市面板数据的实证分析

A Study on the Impact of Floating Population on Urban Housing Price An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

对于城市而言,房地产业在改善居住环境、增加财政收入、创造就业机会以及吸引人才上具有巨大的积极推动作用。然而,随着经济的快速发展以及人口的大量涌入,房地产业的发展也遇到了房价上涨过高过快等诸多问题。本文结合省级城市经济特点,从人口流动的角度分析了外来人口的涌入对城市房价的影响,并给出合理的政策建议。本文选取省级城市2005年至2015年的人口和房地产等经济数据建立面板模型进行实证分析以研究外来人口的流入是否导致了城市房价的上涨;结果表明外来人口的确在一定程度上推动了城市房价的上涨。对此本文从缩小地区发展差距、平衡资源配置以及改革户籍制度等方面提出政策建议来降低外来人口对房价的影响。

For the city, the real estate industry has a huge positive role in improving the living environment, increasing the revenue,creating employment opportunities and attracting talents. However, with the rapid economic development and the influx of the population, the development of the real estate industry has also encountered housing prices rose too high and so many problems. Based on the characteristics of provincial cities, this paper analyzes the impact of the influx of foreign population on urban housing prices from the perspective of population mobility and gives reasonable policy suggestions. This paper chooses the economic model of population and real estate of provincial cities from 2005 to 2015 to establish a panel model to analyze the influx of foreign population to lead to the rise of urban housing prices. The results show that the foreign population does promote the urban housing prices to a certain extent The rise. In this paper, this paper from the narrowing of regional development gap, balance the allocation of resources and the reform of household registration system and other aspects of policy recommendations to reduce the impact of foreign population on housing prices.