高速铁路对福建省区域经济发展的影响——基于可达性的视角

A Reachability Perspective on Influence of High-speed Railway on Regional Economic Development of Fujian

阐明高速铁路对区域经济的直接和间接影响。聚焦于直接影响,选择可达性作为高速铁路对区域经济直接影响的重要指标,基于可达性的视角利用回归模型验证其他指标,进而运用EViews的预测方法,使用无高速铁路情况下的数据对高速铁路开通后的相关指标进行预测,并与高速铁路开通后的实际值进行"有无对比"。结果表明:高速铁路的开通对城市的可达性和产业结构有显著影响,在短期内对人均GDP无明显影响。

In this paper, we aimed at explicating the direct and indirect influence of high-speed railway on regional economy. With focus first on the direct influence, we chose to use reachability as a key indicator of the direct influence of high-speed railway on regional economy, verified other relevant indexes through the regression model and fresher applied the EViews forecasting process on the operational data generated in the absence of high-speed railway to obtain the related indexes after the opening of the high-speed railway. Through the analysis we found that high- speed railway had significant influence on the reachability and industrial structure of a city while no obvious influence on GDP per capita was found in the short term.