天津市2006-2015年细菌性痢疾季节性分布及气温相关性分析

Seasonal distribution of bacillary dysentery and its correlation with temperature in Tianjin City,2006-2015

目的探讨天津市细菌性痢疾的季节性特征以及气温对细菌性痢疾发病的影响,为科学制定有关措施与规划提供依据。方法应用圆形分布法和相关回归统计法对天津市2006-2015年细菌性痢疾发病情况和气温数据进行分析。结果天津市细菌性痢疾发病具有明显的季节性,高峰期为5-10月,相关分析表明细菌性痢疾月发病情况与气温呈正相关(r=0.877,P<0.01),通过曲线拟合,以二次函数的拟合度最高(R^2=0.852),模型为y=2.500-0.009x+0.022x2。结论气温对细菌性痢疾的发病有直接影响,年平均气温升高,细菌性痢疾的发病高峰期延长。天津市细菌性痢疾发病季节性特征明显,建立的方程可对细菌性痢疾的月发病率进行预测。

Objective To explore the seasonal characteristics of bacillary dysentery and the impact of temperature on the inci- dence of bacillary dysentery in Tianjin so as to provide a basis for scientifically formulating the relevant measures and plans. Methods Circular distribution method and correlation regression statistics method were used to analyze the incidence of bacillary dysentery and the data concerning temperature in Tianjin from 2006 to 2015. Results The incidence of bacillary dysentery pres- ented obvious seasonal fluctuation, and the peak period was from May to October. Correlation analysis showed that the monthly inci- dence of dysentery was positively related to temperature （r = 0.877, P〈0.01）. Curve fitting indicated that the quadratic function had the best goodness of fit （R2= 0.852} , with the model of y= 2.500-0.009x＋0.022x2. Conclusions Temperature has a di- rect influence on the onset of bacterial dysentery. The higher the annual average temperature, the more prolonged the peak inci- dence of bacillary dysentery. The incidence of bacillary dysentery in Tianjin exhibits obvious seasonal characteristics, and the es- tablished equation based on the curve regression analysis can predict the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery.