省级光伏发电功率预测与运行监测平台

Provincial Power Forecasting and Operation Monitoring Platform for Photovoltaic Power

我国光伏持续快速发展,光伏并网呈现中低压接入比例高、点多面广、不确定性强的特点,光伏发电功率预测与运行监测对于电网安全运行具有重要意义。文章提出了多源数据预处理、数值天气预报输出校正及多数据条件的预测方法等关键技术;设计研发了省级光伏功率预测与运行监测平台,具有多时间尺度、多数据条件的光伏发电功率预测功能,可实现省级太阳辐射资源进行网格化预报、广域光伏发电可视化管理及并网运行分析。该平台已在河南试点地区应用,取得了良好的示范效果。

Photovoltaic power continues to develop rapidly in China. Grid connected photovoltaic has the characteristics of high ratio of medium-low voltage access,wide distribution and strong uncertainty. Photovoltaic power forecasting and operation monitoring has great significance for the safe operation of the grid. This paper presents the key technology of multi-source data preprocessing,numerical weather forecast output correction and multi-data conditions forecast methods. The provincial photovoltaic power forecasting and operation monitoring platform is designed and developed. The platform has the capabilities of photovoltaic power forecasting with multi-time scale,multi-data conditions,realizes the provincial meshing forecasting of solar radiation resources,the visual management of wide-area photovoltaic power generation and analysis of grid connected operation. The platform has been applied in the pilot areas of Henan province,and has achieved good demonstration results.