新型城镇化背景下内蒙古城镇化和第三产业互动发展研究

Study on the Interactive Development Relationship between Urbanization and the Tertiary Industry in Inner Mongolia

一个国家或地区经济发展水平的重要标志是城镇化水平的高低。根据发达国家经济发展的一般规律,第三产业将逐渐取代工业化,成为城镇化发展的主导力量,而城镇化的提升又会促进第三产业进一步发展。首先,以1980-2015年的数据为样本,以内蒙古城镇化与第三产业的互动发展关系为研究对象,运用ADF单位根检验法、E-G协整检验法、Granger因果分析和误差修正理论,对内蒙古城镇化和第三产业之间的关系进行了实证分析。分析得出第三产业与城镇化之间存在长期稳定的关系,城镇化水平对第三产业的发展具有促进作用,然而内蒙古第三产业的发展对城镇化水平的推动效果不明显。其次,根据上述计量结果与国内外经验数据不相符的情况进行原因分析,主要是由内蒙古城镇化和第三产业发展的特殊性造成的,例如,城镇化水平统计数据"虚高"、城镇化的推进更多是一种土地的城镇化,而非"人的城镇化"、第三产业发展缓慢且内部结构不合理等。再次,针对以上存在的问题,进一步提出可行性的政策建议,以实现城镇化与第三产业之间协调健康发展。

This paper use the data from 1980 to 2015 as samples and applying ADF Unit root test ap-proach, Co-integration test approach,Engle Granger error correction theory and Granger causality analy-sis approach,making an empirical analysis of the relationship between the Urbanization and the Tertiary Industry in Inner mongoliai Province. Secondly,through the study there is a long -term stable relationship between Urbanization and the Tertiary Industry in Inner mongoliai Province？and Urbanization is the cause of the Tertiary Industry,the Tertiary Industry is also the cause of Urbanization in the long-run through Granger-causality test. There are some reasons for it,such as the urbanization level statistics shows arti-ficially high urbanization more is a kind of land urbanization, rather than citizens urbanization the Ter-tiary Industry has a slow development level and unreasonable internal structure. Finally, this paper gives some suggestions based on the result statistics and existing problems of Relationship between Urbanization and the Tertiary Industry to improve the development of Inner mongoliai Province.