中国城镇化与耕地变化时空耦合研究

Analysis on the Time-spatial Coupling Character of Urbanization and Cultivated Land Resource in China

利用全国(港澳台地区除外)1985—2013年的面板数据,分析各省份城镇化水平的演进态势及耕地数量的动态变化,并分不同时段测算各省份城镇化发展水平与耕地资源变动的耦合协调程度。结果表明:(1)1985年以来,全国大部分地区的城镇化水平整体上都呈现上升的变化趋势,东三省城镇化水平稳定上升但活力不足,西北多省份上升中波动较大,西南地区水平偏低。(2)全国耕地资源在20世纪80年代普遍减少,后期多省份有所增加,但京、津、沪、苏、粤等地的耕地面积一直在以一定的速率减少。(3)全国城镇化与耕地资源关系的协调度呈现西高东低、北高南低的空间格局。较多地区在快速城镇化进程中城镇化发展与耕地资源的协调度呈恶化趋势。

This paper firstly analyzed the characteristics of urbanization evolution and cultivated land resources quantity change throughout all the provinces in China, and then used coordination model of urbanization and culti-vated land to calculate the coupling coordination degree of urbanization development speed and cultivated land change of all the provinces in China according to different period from 1985 to 2013, and quantitatively analyzed its variation characteristics and time-spatial difference. Since 1985, the urbanization level of most provinces presented relatively stable rising process or rising trend in the undulation. The urbanization level of the Northeast China in-creased steadily with lack of vitality. That of many provinces of the Northwest China increased with large fluctua-tions. And the level of the Southwestern region was lower. The cultivated land around the country generally de-creased in the 1980s , and increased in many provinces in the later period. However the cultivated land of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Guangdong had decreased at a certain rate continuously. From the degree of coordi-nation between urbanization and cultivated land resources, the higher values were found in the north and west areas of China, with lower values were mostly in the south and east. In the process of rapid urbanization, the coordination degree of relationship between urbanization and cultivated land resources in most areas showed a worsening trend.