水库突发水污染事件风险评价及应急调度方案研究

Risk Assessment and Emergency Dispatching of Sudden Water Pollution Incident in Reservoir

根据突发水污染事件特征及影响因素,建立水库突发水污染事件风险评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法进行指标权重计算和确定.依据水库突发水污染事件风险计算值,对突发水污染事件进行事故等级分类,提取对其影响较大的二级指标,并结合水动力模型模拟结果指导水库突发水污染事件下应急调度方案的制定.上述风险评价体系和应急调度方案制定以假设丹江口水库发生突发水污染事件为例进行了实例应用,并提出了满足不同供水要求的陶岔持续小流量引水和陶岔部分时段停止供水两种应急调度方案.

Based on the characteristics and influencing factors of sudden water pollution incident,the risk assessment index system of reservoir sudden water pollution incident is established,and the index weights are calculated by analytic hierarchy process（AHP）.Sudden water pollution incidents are classified according to their risk and the secondary indexes which have great influence on sudden water pollution are extracted.According to the classification and secondary indexes of sudden water pollution incident,the emergency reservoir dispatching schemes are formulated based on the simulation results of hydrodynamic model.The above risk assessment system and the formulation of emergency dispatching scheme are applied to the hypothetical sudden water pollution incidents in Danjiangkou Reservoir.Two emergency dispatching schemes are proposed to meet the different demands of water supply：continuous small-flow water supply and intermittent water supply.