语言文化对“一带一路”沿线各国双边贸易的影响——基于扩展引力模型的实证研究

Influence effect of language on bilateral trade between countries along "The Belt and Road"——Empirical analysis based on extended gravity model

"一带一路"已经成为我国对外贸易发展的重要战略方向,而"一带一路"沿线各国横跨整个欧亚非大陆,国家、民族众多,各国之间的经贸往来必然存在着一定的文化障碍。因此,本文基于引力模型,使用CEPII数据库中的各语言指数来分析语言因素对"一带一路"沿线各国总体双边贸易和不同产品类型贸易的影响。实证研究结果表明,直接沟通能力(共同口语)对"一带一路"总体双边贸易影响最大,其他因素按影响的重要程度排序依次是民族联系(共同民族语言)、官方支持下的间接沟通能力(共同官方语言)和民间间接沟通能力(语言相近性)。同时,语言对"一带一路"不同产品类型贸易的影响随着产品复杂度提高而提高。对于低差异化产品而言,由于附加值较低,其依赖于低成本的沟通,语言的重要性最低。对于中差异化产品,语言的重要性有所提升。而对于高差异化产品而言,共同民族语言所体现出的民族联系和信任度对"一带一路"高差异化产品的贸易影响最大。其他依次是共同口语、共同官方语言和语言相近性,这些都反映出语言因素对"一带一路"高差异化产品贸易的重要性。

In recent years, ＂The Belt and Road＂ has become an important strategy to the development of China＇s foreign trade. However, owing to the cultural difference among the involved countries from Asia, Africa and Europe, which have many ethnic groups, the existing barriers still hinder bilateral trade.This paper analyzed the effect of language on the entire and multi-industry trade between different countries involved in ＂The Belt and Road＂ by using the gravity model and applying CEPII language database. The empirical results show that the direct communication skill（common spoken language） has the largest impact on the ＂The Belt and Road＂ bilateral trade. Other factors, according to its importance level, are respectively ethnic affiliation（common native language）, indirect communication that officially supported by government（common official language） and traditional indirect communication（linguistic proximity）. Meanwhile, with the complexity of products increases, the empirical results show that the language effect on multi-industry trade becomes large. For homogeneous products, it relies on low-cost communication due to the low value-added, and therefore the importance of language is very low. For intermediate products, the importance of the language has increased. For heterogeneous products, common native language is largest impact factor. Others followed by common spoken language, common official language and linguistic proximity, reflect the importance of linguistic factors on heterogeneous products trade of ＂the Belt and Road＂.