时空因素对我国赴泰旅游安全事件的影响

The temporal and spatial factors' effect on tourism safety accidents of Chinese tourists in Thailand

以2010年~2014年我国旅行社责任险出险案例为基础,遴选出568起我国游客赴泰旅游出险案例为研究样本,运用非线性典型相关分析法探究时空因素与我国赴泰旅游安全事件类型间的关联影响机制。研究表明:在时间变量上,旅游安全事件类型分布与时间因素间呈差异性关联特征,其发生频率与泰国旅游旺季有所差异,与旅游活动时段的相关性更高;在空间变量上,旅游安全事件呈高发场所集中分布特征;与旅游六要素空间既有差异性关联特征,又具有交叉性关联特征;与具体地点具有较强的单一关联特征。

Based on case base of blanket insurance demonstration project of travel agency liability insurance during 2010-2014, 568 safety accidents for Chinese tourists encountered in Thailand as study sample. We adopted the Optimal Scaling Analysis method to explore the correlation effect between the time-space factors and tourist safety and security accidents, and then described the time and space distribution. The result shows that there is a negative correlation between the frequency of tourist accidents and Thailand tourism season, but closely related to tourism activity stages. And in time distribution, different time dimensions and periods correlate with tourist accidents differently. The space variables, such as six elements space in tourism and accidents site, are also high relevant to the frequency of tourist accidents. And different tourism space correlates with tourist accident types differently, and tourist accidents change obviously with different accidents site.