扬中市居民主要慢性病死亡影响因素的定量研究

Quantitative study on death caused by main chronic diseases in Yangzhong city

目的分析江苏省扬中市2002-2015年主要慢性病的死亡情况及趋势,并探索人口与非人口因素在其中的贡献。方法分析扬中市2002-2015年主要慢性病死亡监测数据,计算主要慢性病的粗死亡率和年龄标化死亡率,采用年度变化百分比(APC)评价主要慢性病死亡率变化趋势,采用差别分解法分析人口因素对主要慢性病死亡率变化的贡献。结果扬中市2002-2015年慢性病粗死亡率为698.59/10万,标化死亡率为370.47/10万,其中恶性肿瘤死亡率最高,而胃癌在其中死亡率最高。死亡率趋势分析结果显示,慢性病、恶性肿瘤、食管癌、胃癌、肝癌、脑血管疾病的标化死亡率呈下降趋势,肺癌、心血管疾病呈上升趋势,是人口因素和非人口因素共同作用的结果。结论人口因素阻碍扬中市慢性病死亡率的下降趋势,加强非人口因素的干预,可以有效降低慢性病死亡率。

Objective To analyze the status and trend of the deaths of major chronic diseases in Yangzhong city from 2002 to 2015 ; to explore the contribution of population and non-population factors. Methods Chronic disease death surveillance data in Yangzhong city from 2002 to 2015 were analyzed. Mortality rate and age standardized mortality rate were calculated, annual percentage change （APC） was used to evaluate morality trend. The differential decomposition method was employed to analyze contribution of population factors on chronic disease mortality. Results The crude mortality rate of chronic diseases in Yang- zhong city from 2002 to 2015 was 698.59/10：;, the standardized mortality rate was 370.47/102 . Of all chronic diseases, the mortality rate of malignant tumors was highest, among which gastric cancer mortality rate was the highest. Based on morality analysis,the standard mortality rates of chronic diseases, malignant tumors, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, cerebrovascular diseases showed descending trends; while morality rates of lung cancer and cardiovascular disease showed ascending trends, which was contributed by both demographic and non-demographic factors. Conclusion Population factor played a role in slowing the descending trend of mortality rates caused by chronic diseases in Yangzhong city. Enforce- ment of interventions targeting non-population factors can reduce the mortality rate of chronic diseases effectively.