2011—2014年南京市户籍人口疾病死亡趋势变化对期望寿命的影响

Influence of epidemiological trend of disease mortality on life expectancy among residents in Nanjing from 2011 to 2014

目的定量分析南京市户籍人口"十二五"期间疾病死亡趋势变化对期望寿命的影响,为政府制定政策、规划提供依据。方法应用去死因寿命方法,分析南京市2011—2014年户籍人口死亡资料,描述疾病别实际死亡变化对人均预期寿命的影响。结果 2011—2014年南京市全人群死亡率基本保持稳定,以平均每年1.92%的速度缓慢上升。不同疾病死亡中,内分泌及营养代谢性疾病、泌尿生殖系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病死亡率上升速度较快,分别为平均每年6.85%、6.82%和5.25%,而精神障碍疾病导致的死亡以13.54%的速度下降。循环系统疾病损失的寿命年最高,为8.00岁,其次为肿瘤,损失的寿命年为3.77岁。结论近年来,对南京市期望寿命影响最大的疾病为循环系统疾病(主要为心脑血管病),其次为肿瘤。从趋势上看,内分泌及营养代谢性疾病(主要为糖尿病),以及泌尿生殖系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病对期望寿命的损失逐渐加大。

Objective To analyze influence of epidemiological trend of disease mortality on life expectancy quantitively a- mong residents in Nanjing during the 12th 5-year program ; to provide scientific basis for making prevention and control meas- ures. Metheds Cause eliminated life table was used to calculate mortality data of Nanjing residents from 2011 to 2014 and ana- lyze impact of disease mortality rate changes on life expectancy. Results The whole population mortality rate in Nanjing re- mained basically stable from 2011 to 2014, rising slowly at an annual average rate of 1.92%. Among different diseases, the mortality rates of endocrine and nutritional metabolic disease, genitourinary system disease and respiratory system disease in- creased fast, the corresponding annually growth rates were 6.85%, 6.82% and 5.25%, respectively. While the mortality caused by mental disorder disease decreased significantly by 13.54 %. The years of life lost caused by circulation system disease was the highest, with an average of 8.00 years, followed by cancer, with years of life lost of 3.77 years. Conclusion In recent years, circulation system disease （mainly was cardio cerebrovascular disease） and cancer were the most devastating disorders affecting life expectancy of Nanjing residents. Based on disease prevalence trend analysis, loss of life expectancy caused by en- docrine and nutritional metabolic disease（mainly was diasetes）, genitourinary system disease and respiratory system disease in- creased gradually.