陕西省耕地生产潜力估算

Estimation of Potential Productivity over Arable Land in Shaanxi Province of West China

针对耕地资源分布不均、可利用地急剧缺乏等问题,研究了耕地生产潜力估算方法,有效地管理耕地资源,获取农情状况监测信息。以陕西省耕地区域为研究对象,利用10年(2003—2012年)的遥感、气象、土壤性状和基础地理数据,基于改进的"机制法"模型结合作物生长动态,实现了陕西省耕地生产潜力的估算。陕西省耕地生产潜力值的总体空间分布为北山<陕北黄土高原<关中及以南区域,10年间潜力值总量均大于6 000万吨,年际间变化幅度趋于水平。利用2011年统计的各市单位面积产量数据与估算的耕地生产潜力结果对比分析,其分析结果符合线性关系,R^2为0.695 5。研究结果表明,所提出的估算方法可以很好地应用于陕西省耕地生产潜力的估算,并为农情监测提供数据支撑。

In view of the uneven distribution of cultivated land resources, the sharp lack of available and other issues, estimation of potential productivity over arable land can provide essential information on management of the land resource for its rational use in agricultural condition monitoring. In this paper, arable land in Shaanxi province was selected as the research object, using remote sensing, meteorology, soil properties and basic geographic data in 10 years （2003- 2012）, based on improved ＂mechanism method＂ model combined with crop growth dynamics, the aim is to estimate the potential productivity over arable land in Shaanxi Province. The total spatial distribution of arable land productivity value in Shaanxi province is Beishan 〈Shaanxi Loess Plateau 〈Guanzhong and the south area, the total potential value are greater than 60 million tons in 10 years,and the annual rate of change tends to level. Based on the statistical data of the yield per unit area of each city in 2011 and the estimated potential productivity of arable land,the analytical result is linear with R2= 0. 695 5. The result shows that the method can be used to estimate the productivity of arable land and provide data support for agricultural monitoring.