中国货币政策尚不具备加息条件

China's Monetary Policy Does Not Have the Conditions of Raising Interest Rates at Present

中央经济工作会议提出2017年我国货币政策应"保持稳健中性",但是央行的公开市场操作相当于隐性加息,其加息的主要依据是中国经济企稳回升,加息防止经济过热;加息可以抑制房地产泡沫;美国进入加息周期,中国加息可以防止资本外逃。但我国货币政策尚不具备加息条件,原因在于中国经济企稳态势事实上并不稳固,加息将加大经济下行压力;应采取宏观审慎政策而非选择加息,用加息手段抑制资产泡沫可能效果不明显,反而可能导致中国经济陷入债务通缩;加息不是防止资本外逃的有效手段,应通过适度加强资本管制。

The central economic work conference proposed that China＇ s monetary policy should maintainsteady de- velopment in 2017 ,however,the central bank＇s open market operation is equivalent to raising interest implicitly. Raising interest rate is based mainly on the steady recovery of China＇ s economy, it can prevent overheating of the e- conomy and curb the real estate bubble. Currently, the United States entered a period of raising interest rate, China＇ s interest raising policy can prevent capital flight. This paper argues that China＇ s monetary policy does not yet have the conditions for raising interest rates, the reason is that China＇ s economic situation is actually not stable, raising interest rates will increase the downward pressure on the economy. China should adopt macro prudential policy instead of raising interest rates, the effect of raising interest rates to curb asset bubbles may not be obvious, but could lead to China＇ s debt deflation;raising interest rates is not an effective means to prevent capital flight, but should be strengthened through moderate capital controls.