基于门限模型下经济增长的最优居民收入份额研究

Research on the Optimal Income Share of Economic Growth Based on Threshold Model

提高居民收入份额可以刺激消费,带动经济增长,是当前重振经济的重要手段。但过高的居民收入份额会影响政府和企业在经济体系中的作用,造成经济体系失衡。因此居民收入份额存在合理区间。通过分析1978—2015年经济数据,建立门限回归模型,得出居民收入份额合理区间为46.01%~48.30%,并对当前居民收入份额低于合理区间的情况提出建立政府干预市场的合理机制、完善社会保障制度和改善绩效工资制度、控制投资过快增长、调整出口政策以及改善居民收入分配构成的建议。

Increasing the income share can stimulate consumption and drive economic growth, which is an important means to revitalize the economy. But the excessive income share will affect the role of the government and enterprises in the economic system,resulting in an unbalanced economic system. Therefore, the income share has a reasonable range. Based on the threshold regression model,we can get the reasonable range of residents＇ income was 46.01% ~48.30% by analyzing the economic data from 1978 to 2015. In the end, the paper proposes the suggestion of establishing the reasonable mechanism of government intervention market, perfecting the social security system and improving the performance wage system.