直接税改革:基于防范化解金融风险视角的讨论

Direct Tax System Reform in China: A Discussion from the Perspective of Preventing and Resolving Financial Risks

当下正在持续实施和推进中的减税降费和税制改革,主要是以增列赤字和增发国债来支撑的。依靠借钱支撑的减税降费和税制改革,虽能在短期内勉强实施和推进,但不可持续,且蕴含极大的金融风险。造成减税降费和税制改革依靠借钱支撑的成因,虽可区分为政府支出规模未能同步削减和直接税改革未能同步推进,但鉴于削减政府支出规模一向困难,空间较小,鉴于直接税改革既契合本轮减税降费和本轮税制改革的战略意图,又同本轮减税降费和本轮税制改革意在调整税费结构的灵魂相一致,更鉴于减税降费和税制改革必须持续实施和推进,以加快推进以个人所得税和房地产税为主要内容的直接税改革作为主要抓手,及时走出依靠"借钱"来支撑减税降费和税制改革的道路,从而守住不发生区域性和系统性金融风险的底线,无疑是一个没有多少回旋余地的适当选择。

The ongoing implementation and promotion of tax and fee cuts and tax reform mainly depends on increasing the deficit and the issuance of government bonds. The tax and fee cuts and tax reform relying on borrowing can be barely implemented and promoted in the short term, but cannot be sustained and may contain a great deal of financial risks. The tax and fee cuts and tax reform relying on borrowing may result from either that the scale of government expenditure cannot be reduced synchronously or that the direct tax reform cannot be advanced simultaneously. However, in view of the fact that there is a little space to cut the scale of government expenditure, that the direct tax reform is in line with both the strategic intent and the soul adjusting the tax and fee structure of the current tax and fee cuts and tax reform and that the tax and fee cuts and tax reform must be implemented and advanced continuously, it is undoubted that it is an appropriate choice with very little room for maneuver to take speeding up promotion of the direct tax reform based on personal income tax and real estate tax as the main starting point to move away from the road of the tax and fee cuts and tax reform relying on borrowing, so as to hold the bottom line without regional and systemic financial risks.