江苏省昆山市1981～2015年去胃癌死因期望寿命与潜在减寿年分析

Impact of Gastric Cancer Deaths on Life Expectancy and Potential Years of Life Lost from 1981 to 2015 in Kunshan City,Jiangsu Province

[目的]探讨昆山市1981~2015年去胃癌可增加期望寿命和胃癌所致的潜在减寿年时间趋势。[方法]1981~2015年恶性肿瘤死亡病例来源于死因监测,以计算去胃癌死因可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年;去胃癌死因可增加期望寿命=去胃癌死因期望寿命-平均期望寿命。用中国2000年第五次人口普查的年龄结构计算分性别的年龄标化潜在减寿年。使用年度变化百分比(e APC)评价去胃癌可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年在年份之间的变化趋势。[结果]总人群中去胃癌死因期望寿命由1981年的0.82岁下降到2015年的0.54岁(APC=-1.4%,95%CI:-1.8%^-1.0%);男性人群(APC=-1.3%,95%CI:-1.8%^-0.8%)和女性人群(APC=-1.5%,95%CI:-2.1%^-0.9%)去胃癌死因可增加期望寿命也呈现下降趋势。胃癌所致的标化潜在减寿年在总人群(APC=-4.3%,95%CI:-4.8%^-3.8%)、男性人群(APC=-4.8%,95%CI:-5.4%^-4.2%)及女性人群(APC=-3.4%,95%CI:-4.3%^-2.5%)均明显下降。[结论]去胃癌死因可增加期望寿命和胃癌所致的年龄标化潜在减寿年在35年间持续下降,说明因胃癌所致过早死亡和对全人群健康影响均在持续下降。

[Purpuse] To examine impact of gastric cancer on life expectancy and potential years of life lost（PYLL） in Kunshan City,Jiangsu Province,1981~2015. [Methods] Data were collected from vital registry of Kunshan city. Gastric cancer-eliminated life expectancy and the PYLL were calculated. Increased life expectancy by elimination of gastric cancer was defined as gastric can-cer-eliminated life expectancy minus average life expectancy. The Chinese population in 2000 was used to calculate age-standardized PYLL. Estimate annual percentage changes（e APC） and 95%confidence interval（CI） were used to examine the temporal trend of increased gastric cancer-eliminated life expectancy and PYLL. [Results] During 1981 to 2015,substantially decreasing trend was observed for the increased gastric cancer-eliminated life expectancy,which decreased by 0.82 years in 1981 to 0.54 in 2015（APC=-1.4%,95%CI：-1.8%^-1.0%）,and there were a significant decreasing trend was found both in males（APC =-1.3%,95% CI：-1.8% ^-0.8%） and in females（APC =-1.5%,95% CI：-2.1% ^-0.9%）. Moreover,the age-standardized PYLL among both sex（APC=-4.3%,95%CI：-4.8%^-3.8%）,males（APC=-4.8%,95%CI：-5.4%^-4.2%） and females（APC =-3.4%,95% CI：-4.3% ^-2.5%） were all decreased. [Conclusion] An overall decreasing trends are observed in increased gastric cancer-eliminated life expectancy and age standardized PYLL in Kunshan City 1981~2015,indicating that the impact of gastric cancer on premature deaths in the population has been alleviated gradually.