镇江站天文潮预报模型研究

Study on prediction model of astronomical tide in Zhenjiang Station

长江镇扬河段属感潮河段,尝试采用适合于河口海岸的自动分潮优化技术、基于高低潮资料的调和分析改进型方法以及河口潮位径流增量修正法,计算镇江站的调和常数,预报其天文潮位,同时建立特征潮位、预报误差的统计分析。结果显示:虽然高低潮位误差在30 cm以内合格率为82.4%,仅达到乙等,但高潮位的预报精度达到了甲等,表明采用调和常数预报镇江站天文潮高潮位可行。

The Zhenjiang Reach of Yangtze River is a tidal reach. Methods of automatic tide-flow optimization technique, an improved method of harmonic analysis based on high tide and low tide data, and incremental correction of tidal flow in the estuary, which were suitable for the estuary coast, were tried to calculate the harmonic constant of Zhenjiang Station and to forecast the astronomical tide. At the same time, the statistical analysis of characteristic tide and prediction error were established. The results showed that the high and low tide level error within 30cm qualified rate was 82.4%, which only reached B, but the prediction accuracy of high tide reached A, which showed that it was feasible to predict the high tide of astronomical tide in Zhenjiang Station by using harmonic constant.