经济增长与环境污染脱钩的因果链分解及内外部成因研究——来自中国30个省份的工业SO_2排放数据

The causal chain decomposition and the internal and external causes of decoupling of environmental pollution from economic growth:evidence from industrial SO_2 emission of 30 provinces in China

从中国脱钩发展的现状出发,通过Kaya恒等式对Tapio脱钩弹性系数进行因果链分解,并从中析出制约脱钩发展的内外部因素。理论分析与实证检验的结果显示:(1)人口增长与污染排放脱钩以及经济增长与工业增长脱钩正向影响了总脱钩,但工业增长与人口增长脱钩对总脱钩产生显著负向影响;(2)经济集聚具有范围经济与正的环境外部性作用,有助于经济增长与环境污染脱钩;但人口集聚引致递增的消费与生产活动,使得经济与环境负荷同时增加,阻滞了脱钩发展;(3)环境规制通过优化产业结构进而助推经济增长与环境污染脱钩;而以刺激经济增长为首要目的的措施,难以兼顾资源环境效益,不利于脱钩发展。

Based on the current situation of the decoupling development in China,this paper makes the causal chain decomposition of Tapio decoupling elasticity coefficient by Kaya identity,and induces the internal and external factors that affect the decoupling development. The results of theoretical analysis and empirical test show that：（ 1） Both the decoupling of environmental pollution from population growth and the decoupling of industrial growth from economic growth have positive impacts on total decoupling,but the decoupling of population growth from industrial growth has a significant negative impact on total decoupling.（ 2） Economic agglomeration plays a significant role in boosting the decoupling of economic growth from environmental pollution through economies of scope and positive environmental externalities. However,population agglomeration blocks the decoupling development as it leads to an increase in consumption and production activities,which increases the economic and environmental load.（ 3） Environmental regulation also boosts the decoupling development through the optimization of industrial structure,while the measures to stimulate economic growth as the primary objective are not conducive to the decoupling development as it is difficult to take into account the resource and environmental benefits.