不确定性经济周期理论研究综述

Review of Uncertainty Economic Cycle Theory

不确定性冲击对宏观经济运行产生重要影响,是制定经济政策时需要考虑的关键因素。不确定性经济周期理论,利用时变波动率模型来刻画不确定性,把不确定性冲击引入到动态随机一般均衡模型进行理论和实证研究,是当前宏观经济学研究的前沿课题。文章系统梳理了不确定性的定义和测度方法,不确定性冲击DSGE模型的求解方法,不确定性冲击的宏观经济效应和微观机制,并对中国不确定性研究提出可能的研究方向。

Uncertainty shocks have significant impact on macroeconomic development,and it is the key factor for economic policymaking. The uncertainty economic cycle theory is the frontier macroeconomics research,using the time-varying volatility model to describe the uncertainty,and introducing the time-varying volatility model into dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. This paper systematically reviews the definition and measurement of uncertainty,the solving of DSGE models with uncertainty shocks,the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks and its micro-mechanisms,and puts forward the potential research direction of uncertainty shocks in China.