基于复杂网络理论的地铁运行干扰源分析

Analysis of metro operation disturbances based on complex network theory

为了提升地铁系统的运行安全水平,以地铁运营事故和风险清单为基础,识别出26类地铁运行干扰源,通过事件链明确干扰源间的联系,构建地铁运行干扰源网络(MODN).然后,运用复杂网络理论(CNT),剖析地铁系统运行干扰源的特性,对MODN的拓扑特征进行研究.最后,基于目标免疫理论提出4种提升系统安全性的免疫策略,并对其免疫效果进行评估.研究结果表明:基于CNT对地铁运行干扰源的特性进行分析是可行的;MODN具有小世界特性和无标度特性,干扰源容易传播和扩散;地铁干扰源的免疫策略中选择性免疫策略的效果优于随机性免疫策略,而在选择性免疫策略中基于高介数和高度值的免疫策略效果最佳.地铁系统运行中应重点防范具有介数和度值高的干扰源.

To enhance the safety level of metro operation,26 disruptive events are identified through the metro accidents and risk checklists. The interrelations among the disruptive events are clarified by the employing event chain,and the metro operation disturbance network（ MODN） is established.Then,the complex network theory（ CNT） is utilized to explore the characteristics of metro operation disturbances by revealing the topological properties of the MODN. Finally,four immunization strategies are put forward to enhance the system safety based on the target immunization theory,and the effects of these strategies are evaluated. The results indicate that it is feasible to study the nature of metro disturbances by the CNT. The MODN is a complex network with small-world property and scale-free property,in which the disturbances can spread easily. With regard to the immunization strategies,the immune effect of the selective immunization strategy is better than that of the random immunization strategy. Concerning the selective immunization strategies,the immune effect of the strategy based on degree and between centrality is better. The interference sources with high betweenness and high degree of interference should be emphasized during metro operation.